Benjamin Cowen: Bitcoin Bottom Is Still Ahead – Price and Timeline He Is Watching

Key Takeaways

• Cowen assigns 75% probability to Bitcoin making a new low in 2026.
• Most likely bottom timeframe: October 2026.
• Price target: ~$39,000-$40,000, a 70% drop from the all-time high.
• Three on-chain indicators have appeared at every prior bottom.
• Bitcoin at $72,829, holding above rising 50 SMA at $72,458.

The Call and the Framework Behind It

Benjamin Cowen, the crypto analyst who publicly called the Bitcoin top in Q4 2025 when price was above $110,000, returned to Altcoin Daily to lay out where the current cycle goes from here. His position is direct: there is a 75% probability the Bitcoin bottom is still ahead, and he has a checklist of conditions that have appeared at every prior cycle low to justify that view.

Cowen is not working from intuition. He is working from a pattern that has repeated across every Bitcoin bear market in histor...