1 month ago
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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin trades at $62,050, bouncing off a triple-tested $58,500 base.
- MVRV at 1.130 puts price about 13% above aggregate cost basis.
- Coins keep leaving spot exchanges, but derivatives leverage is rebuilding.
- The $63,200-64,000 zone is the decision point; $58,500 is the line below.
The on-chain data describes a valuation floor trying to form; the derivatives data describes rising volatility risk. Which one wins out is exactly what the next few weeks should resolve.
The On-Chain Threshold
The most important piece is what’s happening beneath price. Crypto analyst from CryptoQuant wrote that Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio sits at 1.130, meaning the market trades roughly 13% above the aggregate cost basis of all holders. That’s a sharp compression from 2.492, and it has stripped out nearly all of the speculative premium that defined the highs.
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