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Three observations is not a pattern in any statistical sense. Three consecutive declines occur by chance often enough that the record proves nothing on its own, and the measurement windows are not even identical: the 2018 and 2022 ranges cover nine weekly candles, while 2014 covers seven.
What makes the record worth examining is that a mechanism does connect Bitcoin to the midterm calendar. It has nothing to do with voting.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin fell about 53% in 2014, 24% in 2018 and 21% in 2022 during the August–September periods before U.S. midterms.
- Q4 was negative all three times: -16.7%, -42.2% and -14.8%.
- Halvings and midterms both run on four-year cycles, placing every bear-market bottom in a midterm year.
- Bitcoin is down 22.2% in Q1 and 14.1% in Q2 2026, consistent with a late-cycle bottom rather than an election effect.
What the Three Cycles Actually Show
TradingView measurements across the highlighted late-summer windows:
- 2014: $590 to $280, a 53% loss.
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