3 hours ago
4
Key takeaways:
- LTH MVRV (6M-10Y) declining but above 1.
- Prior cycle bottoms pushed MVRV into 0.7-0.85 range.
- Active receiving addresses: 490K.
- Active sending addresses: 445K.
- Both address metrics peaked same day as Bitcoin’s weekly high near $78,500.
- BTC price at $77.7K.
- MVRV direction: compressing toward 1.0, not bouncing away from it.
Long-term holders, wallets that have held Bitcoin between six months and ten years, are measured by the adjusted MVRV ratio. Above 1.0 means this cohort holds more unrealized profit than unrealized loss in aggregate. Below 1.0 means the opposite. The 0.7-0.85 zone is where the historical record becomes instructive: every confirmed Bitcoin cycle bottom in the dataset, November 2012, mid-2015, mid-2019, early 2020, early 2023, was accompanied by the MVRV dropping into that range. The blue bars on the chart mark those periods precisely.
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