Analysis: bitcoin is trading at $77,626 on Friday morning, 3.2 percent below its level 24 hours earlier (CoinGecko, 11:43 a.m. German time). What is established: the daily low was $76,330, exactly $295 above the average of the last 100 daily closes, which by our calculation stands at $76,035. Our assessment follows further down. The next four trading days, with the US midterm elections on November 3, will decide whether this touch turns into a reversal or a breakdown.
Where things stand: $77,626 four days before the US election
October ends today, and it ends in the red. Bitcoin opened the month on October 1 at $83,565, peaked at $87,229 and fell as low as $76,330 on Friday morning. That makes a monthly loss of 7.1 percent. It is the fifth losing month of 2026, after January, February, May and June, and the first since June. All figures in this paragraph come from the daily candles of the Kraken exchange for the XBT/USD pair.
The range for the year is wide: bitcoin stood at $97,900 in January and at $57,740 in July. If you are looking for the longer arc, you will find it in our bitcoin price prediction, which sets out scenarios...
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