1 month ago
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Key Takeaways
- River’s data shows each Bitcoin bear market has been shallower than the last.
- The current 53% drawdown is the mildest in Bitcoin’s history so far.
- CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju says the usual cycle-bottom signal hasn’t fired.
- Governments are now a new class of holder, but not all hold by choice.
Where are we in this Bitcoin cycle? Three different data points offer three different answers, and the most honest read comes from holding them in tension rather than picking one. One says the worst is structurally behind us. One says the bottom signal hasn’t appeared yet. And a third introduces a new kind of holder that complicates both.
The Bull Case: Each Bear Market Is Shallower
River’s historical comparison makes a clean structural argument. Every Bitcoin bear market has been less severe than the one before: 93% in 2011, 87% in 2013-2015, 84% in 2017-2018, and 77% in 2021-2022. The current 2025-2026 cycle has fallen about 53%, from $126,000 to Read Entire Article
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