Ethereum costs $2,402.96 on Friday evening, 1.7 percent less than 24 hours earlier (CoinGecko, as of October 16). The more important figure of the day is not on the price board, though, but in the options book: the DVOL volatility index of the options exchange Deribit put the expected annual swing in ETH at 51.18 points at midday. For Bitcoin the same index stood at 37.38.
From those two figures, a square-root calculation yields the range the derivatives market credits Ethereum with for the coming weeks: $2,050 to $2,756 over 30 days, $2,233 to $2,573 over one week. Where the price can point on a horizon of months is set out in our Ethereum forecast. This article shows how the range arises, what it says, and what it explicitly does not say.
Deribit DVOL at 51.18 points: what the options market is pricing
DVOL is an index Deribit calculates from the prices of its own options. It states how strongly the market expects a price to swing within one year, expressed as a percentage. A reading of 51.18 therefore means that option buy...
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