3 hours ago
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Key Takeaways
- Rate range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%.
- September CPI ran 3.7% on energy costs.
- Futures still price a December hike.
- Midterms and three data releases precede December.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s statement leaves policy where it landed after September’s quarter-point increase, the central bank’s first hike since 2023.
A pause, not a change of direction
Few traders expected anything else. Monday’s Bitcoin outlook cited a 90.6% probability of a hold on CME FedWatch, and a month earlier that figure had been closer to a coin toss.
What changed over those weeks was the calendar. Deutsche Bank economists argued before the meeting that the Fed might want to “stay out of the headlines...
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