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Key Takeaways
- Galaxy’s forecast covers the chance of final enactment, not just the odds of winning the next procedural vote.
- A procedural vote is listed for September 15, but clearing it would only open debate, not complete passage.
- The main obstacles are an unresolved government-ethics agreement, pressure from banks and uncertainty over developer protections, all compressed into a short Senate session.
- SEC exemptions could deliver parts of the bill’s agenda without Congress, but agency action would be narrower, easier to challenge and less durable than legislation.
How the Senate Calendar Eroded Galaxy’s Confidence
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, published the latest downgrade on August 14. Galaxy had raised its estimate to 75% after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in May. It then fell to 60% in early June, 50% later that month and Read Entire Article
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