HERE WE GO AGAIN: 93% of Senate Polls in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio Overstated the Democrat — Average Miss of 6.2 Points Just 33 Days Out, Same Script That Buried Ernst, Vance and Moreno

The polling industry is running the same play it has run for three straight cycles, and a new breakdown of the historical record shows exactly how often that play has been wrong.

Echelon Insights pollster Patrick Ruffini, writing at The Intersection, released an infographic this week measuring Democratic two-party Senate polling averages in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio across 2018–2024, taken at the same point on the calendar we are sitting on now, 33 days before Election Day. The dotted line on his chart is today’s point in the 2026 cycle.

The result is brutal for the people still treating late-September surveys as prophecy.

93 percent of the polls overstated t...