How Bitcoin Historically Reacted to Fed Rate Hikes

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Key Takeaways

March 2022 hike: fully expected, muted reaction.
June 2022: repricing from 50 to 75 bps crushed Bitcoin.
Terra/LUNA collapse amplified the June 2022 crash.
July–September 2022: sustained pressure, no individual surprise.
Early 2023: Bitcoin rallied 21% despite two hikes.
Between final two hikes in 2023: Bitcoin moved just 2%.

The Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades reshaped every corner of financial markets. Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Fed raised rates 11 times, taking them from near zero to 5.25–5.50%.

Bitcoin, as one of the most volatile and sentiment-driven assets in existence, was no exception. But the reaction was rarely simple. Sometimes Bitcoin crashed hard. Sometimes it held up. Once, it actually rallied straight through a rate hike. Here is what the charts actually show, period by period.