How Would 2026's 'Super El Niño' Impact The UK?

16 hours ago 5

Rommie Analytics

This year, multiple weather experts have predicted an El Niño by midsummer. 

Some think it could even become a “super El Niño”. 

But what does that mean, and how could it affect the UK?

El Niño forming by May, potentially becoming strong by August — new ECMWF seasonal modeling.

By the numbers:

• 22% chance of a super El Niño by August
• 80% chance of a strong event
• 98% chance of a moderate event

That's according to data from 50 ensemble members. pic.twitter.com/LDOogrRcEC

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) March 6, 2026

What is an El Niño? 

An El Niño happens when the surface of the Pacific Ocean heats up by 0.5°C or more.

During a super El Niño, though, temperatures rise by 1.5-2°C, professor emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at UCL, Prof Bill McGuire, Read Entire Article