The short answer to the question German readers have been asking for months has been sitting in a European supervisory document since September 10, 2026: the marketing and sale of event contracts in the EU generally requires an EU authorisation, and the largest prediction market platforms do not currently hold one. That is how the European Securities and Markets Authority puts it in its TRV Risk Monitor No. 2/2026, which devotes a chapter of its own to prediction markets for the first time.
For the German debate that is a step change. Until now, Polymarket and Kalshi had attracted legal opinions from law firms, assessments from newsrooms and a great many forum posts. Now there is a statement from the authority that supervises securities markets across the EU, and the chapter can be cited. What the report expressly does not settle matters just as much: it says nothing about whether an individual German user faces consequences, and nothing about what happens to funds already sitting on such a platform. That gap stays a gap in this article too.
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