1 week ago
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Key Takeaways
- BOJ meets July 30–31, after the Fed.
- Markets expect rates to remain at 1%.
- The Outlook Report is the main variable.
- Faster hikes would strengthen the yen.
- Government pressure complicates the policy path.
- Bitcoin’s risk comes through carry trades.
Markets place little probability on another immediate hike. The focus is whether Governor Kazuo Ueda and the Policy Board encourage investors to expect the following move earlier than the current consensus.
Bitcoin is absent from the meeting agenda. The Bank of Japan’s published schedule lists the monetary policy statement, quarterly Outlook Report and Ueda’s press conference, with no mention of cryptocurrency.
The connection is indirect. A more restrictive policy path strengthens the yen, raises Japanese bond yields and makes borrowing in Japan to finance investments elsewhere less attractive. A rapid reduction in those positions puts ...
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