1 month ago
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Key Takeaways
- The Fed is near-certain to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, but Warsh’s press conference tone matters more than the decision itself
- On-chain data from Glassnode shows BTC remains in bear-market territory, with the True Market Mean sitting 15% above spot at $77.2K
- FOMC meetings create short-term 7-day volatility for Bitcoin, but 30-day data shows consistent recovery
- Geopolitical noise — the Iran-US deal uncertainty and ongoing Israeli strikes — continues to weigh on broader risk sentiment
Kevin Warsh chairs his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting today, and for Bitcoin traders the question is not what the Fed will decide – 99,6% probability of a hold, according to CME’s FedWatch tool – but whether the instinct for post-FOMC selling will finally exhaust itself when the chair is new, the dot plot is being revised, and the geopolitical backdrop is messy enough to suppress risk appetite regardless of what the statement says.
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English (US)