Keeping track of TIPS yields is useful because it provides a baseline of the return you can get by taking minimal risk. Beyond just the reliability of US Treasury bonds paying out their interest and return of principal at maturity, TIPS are US government-backed bonds that also address the risk of unexpectedly high inflation.
The real yield on 30-year TIPS has been at ~3% for weeks now as of August 2026, which is the first time since 2008, nearly 20 years ago. At the same time, the 30-year regular Treasury is at 5.3%, making the break-even annual inflation rate roughly 2.3%. This situation has motivated a new article by Edward F. McQuarrie and William J. Bernstein, Long TIPS Yield 3%. Time to Buy?. Only 2.3% inflatio...
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