For most of their history, prediction markets have been a manual, click-driven experience. A user picks a side on an event, takes a position, and waits for resolution. That model scales fine for casual participants. Outpoll is a prediction market platform that provides API access and trading infrastructure for automated strategies. The platform provides public REST and WebSocket APIs with documentation covering automated trading workflows, including arbitrage strategies across multiple markets and external data sources.
This article examines how prediction market APIs support arbitrage workflows and automated trading strategies.
How Arbitrage Opportunities Appear in Prediction Markets
Arbitrage in prediction markets exists for the same structural reason it exists in any other market: prices for the same underlying probability can drift between venues, between related contracts, or between a prediction market and an external information source.
A few of the more common shapes:
- Cross-market arbitrage on related questions: Two prediction markets on questions that are logically related can drift...
English (US)