Will Donald Trump strike Iran after the midterm elections? Nothing has been announced, but his self-imposed pause ended with the vote on 3 November. In a recent Fox News interview he said US forces "might have to go after" Iran's Pickaxe Mountain site, and in October CNN reported that the Pentagon is weighing the GBU-43/B, the "mother of all bombs". For traders, one finding matters first: in this war, gold has mostly fallen on the days oil jumped, so the reflex "war means gold goes up" has not held.
Trump, Iran and the markets: the key facts
- Status: no new offensive announced; the Wall Street Journal reported a US strike on Qeshm Island on the eve of the vote, described by officials as defensive.
- Oil: Brent $104 and US crude $97 on 3 November, up 44 percent since 27 February.
- Gold: about $3,940, down 25 percent over the same period.
- Pattern: gold fell on 27 of the 38 days when US crude rose 3 percent or more.
- Voters: 62 percent in the preliminary NBC exit poll call the military action against Iran the wrong decision.
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