The most important inflation figure in the United States came in weaker than expected on September 30. The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, known internationally as core PCE, rose 3.0 percent in August against the same month a year earlier. The market had expected 3.3 percent. For you as an investor in Germany, one thing above all follows from that: the probability that the Federal Reserve turns the interest rate screw once more on October 28 has fallen within a few days from around 70 percent to below half. Higher rates are the counterweight to risk assets, and Bitcoin is one of them.
Core PCE in August: what the BEA release says
The US Commerce Department publishes the figure through the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or BEA. The release carrying the reference BEA 26-43 appeared on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. local time on the US East Coast, which is 2:30 p.m. German time. It can be read in the BEA's Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 press release.
The figures in detail, all from that release: the overall PCE price in...
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