On Tuesday, 3 November, Americans elect all 435 members of the House and 35 senators. For most assets that is a political story. For crypto it is a pricing event, because the single most important piece of US crypto legislation is sitting dead in the Senate waiting to find out who gets to revive it.
We covered the basics in our midterms explainer over the weekend. This piece is about the next 48 hours: what the market is pricing in, and what happens to $Bitcoin, XRP and Solana under each plausible result.
What is the market expecting from the midterms?
A Democratic House, and probably a Democratic Senate. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket gave Democrats a 92 to 94 percent chance of taking the House and around 69 percent for the Senate as of 30 October. Polling models point the same way, with the Senate far closer than the House.
That expectation is already in the price. Bitcoin is trading near 78,000 dollars after a difficult weekend, XRP is holding above 1.20 dollars after losing the 1.30 level, and Solana sits around 94 dollars. None of these levels assumes a crypto-friendly Congress.
The money is real. Th...
English (US)