9 hours ago
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Key Takeaways
- Q1 2027 borrowing estimate: $800B, including $150B rebuild.
- TGA stood at $1,016 billion on October 28.
- Reserves fell $74B as TGA rose $70B.
- Refunding details due November 4, 13:30 UTC.
In its November 2 borrowing estimates, the U.S. Treasury put privately held net marketable borrowing at $618 billion for October–December 2026 and $800 billion for January–March 2027.
Six Months of Borrowing, Almost No Net Change in Cash
The fourth-quarter figure is $10 billion below Treasury’s August estimate, but only because October began with $34 billion more cash than assumed: $984 billion against $950 billion. Once that head start is removed, Treasury says the underlying requirement is $24 billion higher, mainly because it now expects weaker net cash flows.
The cash targets say more than the borrowing totals. Treasury aims to hold $850 billion at the end of December and $1 trillion at the end of March, so the first-quarter estimate alre...
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