Expert comment provided by Professor Emeritus of Geophysical and Climate Hazards at University College London, Prof Bill McGuire. He is also the author of The Fate of the World: A History And Future Of The Climate Crisis, due out on 21 May.
The start of spring is usually considered a little early to predict a weather phenomenon known as an El Niño, which involves the warming of the ocean surface and is linked to extreme weather events.
That’s down to a factor called the “spring predictability barrier”; from March to May, the climate systems of the Pacific Ocean are unusually unpredictable.
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