1 month ago
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Key Takeaways
- 21Shares holds a $100K year-end base case for Bitcoin in its mid-year report.
- Bitcoin has not traded below its $54,000 aggregate cost basis this cycle.
- 21Shares reads the drawdown as a mature, less panicked correction.
- 10x Research’s Markus Thielen sees more downside, toward $55,000 first.
- A cluster of macro events in autumn is the pressure point both watch.
21Shares: A Mature Correction, Not a Collapse
The Zurich-based asset manager’s State of Crypto mid-year report revisits its December forecasts and keeps a $100,000 year-end base case for Bitcoin. But the more telling material is the structural data beneath that headline. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and now trades around $62,300, roughly 50% below its all-time high. 21Shares frames that as historically mild, noting prior cycles saw corrections of 80% or more.
The anchor for its read is the aggregate investor cost basis...
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