Bitcoin at $1.6M by 2036? Bitwise’s Case Rests on Gold

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Key Takeaways

Bitwise targets $1.6 million per Bitcoin by 2036.
Gold-market share supplies 82% of modeled value.
Institutional allocations add about 9% of value.
Bear case assumes Bitcoin’s share shrinks from today.

The San Francisco asset manager released its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 28, projecting 34.3% annual growth over the next decade. Bitwise manages more than $14 billion in client assets and sponsors a spot Bitcoin ETF, so it has a commercial stake in the asset it is forecasting.

Three outcomes from one spreadsheet

The report starts from Bitcoin’s price on September 30, 2026, which was $83,557. That was three months after the market bottomed near $58,000, a 53% fall from the October 2025 peak. From that base, Bitwise runs three scenarios to 2036.

Bear

$130,686

4.6% a year

Base

$1,599,766

34.3% a year

Bul...

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